Just a year ago, a recession in the United States seemed inevitable. But the world's largest economy has proven more resilient than expected.
At the end of January, the national statistical agency (Bureau of Economic Analysis) will publish the first reading of US GDP in the fourth quarter, which shows how much the world's largest economy grew last year. One thing is already clear: the recession we have long feared has been averted. The US economy handled surprisingly well the interest rate increases that began in 2022 and ultimately achieved real growth of about 2.5%.
The roller coaster ride in the graphic above was depicted by TS Lombard. It shows the evolution of the consensus estimate for US economic growth in 2023. Forecasts were steadily revised downward over the course of 2022. Economic pessimism was particularly evident at the beginning of 2023, when the consensus estimate for the full year fell to almost 0%. However, the upward trend reversal has begun.
A further slowdown in growth is expected in 2024. But according to economists' consensus forecasts, the US economy should at least achieve a soft landing.
Frank Hainger He has been writing for the magazine “Finanz und Wirtschaft” since 2008 – first with a focus on technology stocks, then in the Markets section with a focus on global stock markets. He has been co-head of the department since 2019. The economist previously worked, among other things, as an energy analyst.More information