According to economists
The risk of recession is high in Germany, the Netherlands and Great Britain
February 8, 2024, 9:56 am
According to economists, the European countries most at risk of recession are Germany, the Netherlands and Great Britain, each at 38 percent. Only in Ukraine the probability is even higher at 41 percent, the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy published on Thursday. Experts cite geopolitical events at 43 percent and energy prices at 33 percent as the main factors in the increased probability of a recession, ifo researcher Philip Hale said.
A technical recession is a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters. The German economy shrank by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Bundesbank thinks the economy will “stagnate at best”. According to the survey, geopolitical events and energy prices played a role in this country, each accounting for more than 50 percent of responses.
Globally, experts saw the highest probability of recession in Israel (44 percent), Ecuador (48 percent) and Argentina (61 percent). Every country has experienced turmoil in the past. According to experts, stable public finances and political instability significantly increased the risk of recession.
Those surveyed were less concerned about Switzerland (17 percent), Ireland (20 percent), Spain (22 percent), France (23 percent), the United States (26 percent), Italy (27 percent), Austria (29 percent) or Belgium. (29 percent). The global average was 26 percent.
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