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What opinion polls reveal
The tight race for third place: the AfD is ahead of the Greens in individual opinion polls
Alice Fidel, AfD parliamentary group leader, stands alongside Tino Shrubala, AfD national chair and AfD parliamentary group leader.
© Source: Michael Kappeler / dpa / archive image
Last summer, the Greens didn’t have to worry about their poll numbers: At the start of July 2022, the party was leading with a healthy 23 percent of the electorate. But now that has changed. According to a survey by the opinion research institute INSA for “Bild am Sonntag”, things are currently not looking good for the “environmental party”. Accordingly, the Green Party will receive only 15 percent of the vote if there is a federal election next Sunday.
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What makes the poll so special: The AfD overtook the Greens, with 16 percent of the vote. 1202 people were asked from 13 to 17 March 2023. INSA President Hermann Benckert analyzed: “picture“The majority of voters are not convinced of the concrete political solutions proposed by the Green Party, whether it is a matter of phasing out combustion engines, banning the installation of gas heaters, and so on.”
All opinion research institutes confirm the downward trend of the Green Party and the rise of the AfD. However, it is not at all clear whether the AfD has actually advanced to third place behind the Union and the Social Democratic Party in favor of the Germans – on the contrary.
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Most institutes still see the Green Party in the future
In order to get the clearest possible picture of opinion, the German Editorial Network (RND) sets the average of the last ten surveys of all opinion research institutes operating in Germany. According to this, the Greens, with around 17 percent, are still two percentage points ahead of the AfD, with 15 percent.
The 60 polls conducted so far in 2023 have almost always seen the Greens ahead of the AfD. The YouGov polls conducted on February 10 and a month later were a few exceptions. Since March 13, the INSA has also seen the AfD slightly ahead of the Greens. Other institutes continue to measure progress for the Greens. For example, Wahlen’s research group sees the party lead by 5 percentage points in mid-March.
In the end, the election can only show how important the currently selected mood picture is. In any case, individual opinion polls should not be given too much weight, because poll values for parties fluctuate greatly.
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For the Greens in particular, the range of values measured in calendar weeks for 2023 has so far averaged over 3 percent. For AfD, the value is only slightly lower.
Depending on the respondents’ choice and daily mood, the uncertainty about the distance between the two parties can reach more than 5 percentage points. According to the current electoral law, this would be enough to enter parliament.
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