The topic is mobilizing. This will benefit the Democrats

For decades, U.S. Republicans have pushed for a conservative majority on the Supreme Court to overturn a landmark 1973 abortion-rights decision. Two years ago in June, after Donald Trump managed to appoint three new justices during his term: it was time to respect the Constitution and give the question of pregnancy to the people and their people. It may be decided to leave it to the elected representatives, The Supreme Court justified its decision.

In initial euphoria, Parliaments passed… About 20 conservatively governed member states Restrictive laws that prohibit or restrict abortions. But disillusionment soon set in among Republicans. The American “people” turned out to be less conservative than expected on this issue. Widespread fear of abortion bans has helped Democrats rally voters in the November 2022 midterm elections. The left lost its majority in the House of Representatives and managed to retain control of the Senate in Washington. Despite the fact that Democratic President Joe Biden was already unpopular, high inflation hurt consumers.

The problem is too good to be solved

Just how popular abortion rights are in America is evident in polls, especially in Republican-dominated states like Kansas, Ohio and Montana. A majority of voters there voted in favor of women's freedom to decide whether or not to terminate a pregnancy. Left forces are inspired by this victory In the other 12 member states It launched such popular efforts on abortion rights that will be voted on in November on presidential and congressional elections.

At the same time, the number of abortions in American clinics has increased despite restrictive laws in many states. has obviously increased. According to data from the Guttmacher Institute, the number of these abortions was 77,550 per month in 2020 and about 88,000 in 2023. The agency sees better access to abortion in liberal states and the expansion of telemedicine in this area as reasons. Financial and logistical support from organizations covering high travel costs for patients from conservative states. An estimated one in five women who have abortions leave their home state Goodmaker Company.

Meanwhile, the abortion issue has proven to be one of the Democrats' most effective voter mobilization tools. That's why President Joe Biden is relentlessly focused on the issue in order to be re-elected in the fall. In a campaign appearance in Virginia He promised Last week, the Supreme Court's landmark ruling from 1973 — “Roe v. Wade” — came with a law to reinstate it: “Give me a Democratic House of Representatives and a supermajority in the Senate, and Roe v. Wade will be reinstated.”

Biden knows that such legislation has no chance. A landmark 1973 ruling legalized abortion until the fetus was viable outside the womb — about 23 weeks' gestation. Republican senators would never vote for such liberal regulation. For the bill to pass on its own, Democrats would need to win 60 of the 100 seats in the Senate. This is almost impossible in the current political polarization of America. Because he can rally more voters on the issue, Biden prefers to stick to the maximum demand rather than seek a compromise solution.

As Democrats complain about the inhumane effects of abortion bans in Republican-held states, they are in no rush to find consensus with Republicans. This is what voters want. According to A Gallup poll Last summer, 69 percent of Americans supported the right to have an abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. However, in the second trimester, only 37 percent wanted to allow it.

Every restriction is serious

Just how afraid Democrats are of compromise is evident in the crucial “swing state” of Wisconsin. Last week, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed legislation banning abortions after the 14th week of pregnancy. To become law, it must be approved by the Wisconsin Senate and voters. In this “hot question” you are “in the middle of the swamp”, explained Republican Rep. Angie Sabic. “Let's ask people directly how many people are in the swamp with me.”

But that probably won't happen. Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers is a Democrat. He has already vetoed his bill. Abortions are currently allowed in the state up to the 21st week of pregnancy. Citizens should be free to make their own decisions about their “reproductive health,” Evers said. Vice President of Biden Criticized by Kamala Harris Republican proponents of the 14-week solution that emerged in Wisconsin were once described as “radicals.”

Overall, however, Republicans have done little to counter Democrats' criticism. Wisconsin's modest legislative proposal is an exception. In the two years since the Supreme Court decision, conservatives have been unable to settle on a consensus position. On the one hand, their presidential candidates — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley — are ready for a compromise without committing to the exact number of pregnancies at which abortion should be allowed.

On the other hand, conservative lobby groups are preparing potential regulations in the background that would restrict access to abortion pills for a future Republican president with the stroke of a pen. can be limited. This ominous backdrop makes it easier for Democrats to convince voters of their point on the abortion issue.