Confidence in growth prospects in the United States is greater than in Europe.
When will the international economic downturn end? Preliminary purchasing managers' indicators (PMIs) in November provide the first signs that Germany has bottomed out. But overall they are still not very convincing.
More is needed to improve the economic forecasts of economic researchers. Because it clearly points downwards for Europe. The chart shows how expectations for next year's average real economic growth have evolved over the course of 2023.
In the first half of the year, forecasts for both the European Union and the United States were constantly revised downwards. Growth prospects for 2024 have deteriorated, and the economic transformation has been pushed further into the future.
This applies to the European Union until the current end. In October, the consensus economics forecast for the EU averaged 0.6%, about half of what was expected at the start of 2023.
However, expectations now vary widely. Since September, economists have been steadily raising their forecasts for economic growth in the United States.
Andreas Nienhaus He has been an editor at FuW since 1997 and writes on general topics, especially those affecting interest rates, currencies and the economy. After studying management sciences at the University of Konstanz and obtaining a doctorate, he worked in economic research at Credit Suisse. Lives in Rome.More information