US midterm elections: ‘Most voting is outside party loyalty’

A clear victory for the Republicans – this scenario did not materialize in the midterm elections. American expert Thiem attributes this to increasingly tight political camps. In an interview, he explained what this means for the upcoming elections.

tagesschau.de: dHalfway counting is still going on and some things are still uncertain. What do you think of this morning’s main ideas?

Johannes Thiem: The main takeaway from the congressional elections is that the Republicans will win a majority in the House of Representatives, and that majority is in the middle of expectations. It was expected that there would be a very clear majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives – that does not seem to be the case.

The second conclusion is that it would be a very close result to the Senate. But this is in line with expectations. It is not yet clear who will win this room – every single seat counts. In general, there was not much surprise.

Good news for Democrats

tagesschau.de: Does this also apply to conservatives?

Theme: Democrats have won governing positions that are important to them, that is, they have to win in order to be able to compete in future elections – Michigan and Wisconsin, for example. In addition to state politics, governor elections are always about who organizes, monitors, and certifies future elections.

Looking at the 2024 presidential election, it is important that these are rulers who believe in an orderly electoral process and not the big lie of the stolen 2022 elections. Here are the results from the states listed, but also good news for Democrats from Pennsylvania.

“Specific factors” are less important

tagesschau.de: One possible scenario was that there could be a crushing victory for the Republicans, the so-called red wave. This is not clear. How do you explain that?

Theme: We must first look at the starting position: President Joe Biden’s popularity has been consistently low over the past six months. Most people are not satisfied with his management. The reason is the state of the economy, especially high inflation. The president always bears responsibility for both, although the economy as a whole gives a mixed picture, there is almost full employment, decent growth rates, but also very high inflation. In my opinion, the fact that the so-called red wave is unlikely to occur is due to the fact that most voters now vote according to party loyalty and are no longer influenced by specific factors such as the state of the economy.

“The big swings are missing”

tagesschau.de: Democrats have staked heavily on this issue after the Supreme Court ruling on abortion rights. Did you succeed?

Theme: The Democrats seem to have succeeded in mobilizing their own voters and getting some swing voters to vote for the Democrats despite the supposedly poor economy. The abortion issue may have played a role there, but the question of whether Republican candidates were too radical may have played a role as well. But in general it can be said that the percentage of swing voters is getting smaller and smaller and that is why there are not really big swings.

The importance of the right to vote

tagesschau.de: But it also means that democratic voting rights, an orderly process, and the opportunity to participate in elections will become more important than they really are.

Theme: We are dealing with a situation where in very few states it is very few voters who are making the difference. This relates to US election law, the majority system, and the two-party system. It is especially important to conduct the elections correctly, especially when the election result is close. Among Republicans, there have been many candidates who do not recognize the result of the 2020 presidential election and have questionable views of the integrity of the election.

tagesschau.de: But many of these are now entering parliaments at the state and federal levels. what does that mean?

Theme: This is worrying. On the other hand, the important swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have elected governors who will properly conduct the election.

‘Quality of candidates is no longer important’

tagesschau.de: But it also shows that Donald Trump’s influence on Republicans continues, with long-term consequences.

Theme: You can see everything from both sides. One could pessimistically say that the Republicans fielded some radical and unqualified candidates, also under Trump’s influence. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also complained about it in the summer. However, Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. However, some races in the Senate and the Conservative are so close — precisely because voters have committed so much to one party that the quality of the candidates hardly plays a role.

The optimistic view is that in key locations, the most extreme candidates, such as the Republican candidate for governor of Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, appear to have failed to achieve success. And where they did — take Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green — it also played a role in which radical candidates got to run, particularly in secure Republican constituencies.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aritz, tagesschau.de