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Researchers have shown that sanctions are a "shock" for the Russian economy

Researchers have shown that sanctions are a “shock” for the Russian economy

On the other hand, production losses in the Russian economy would amount to 17 percent if only the Western countries currently in place were not involved in the sanctions. About a fifth of Russia’s total imports will be affected by the measures, which mainly target electronic and optical devices, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other means of transportation such as ships or aircraft, and financial activities.

Accordingly, in the same country, auto manufacturers will be most affected by 52 percent, and the production of electrical equipment will decrease by 39 percent. The decline in mechanical engineering (minus 36 percent) or in ship or aircraft production (minus 34 percent) would be similarly high. For example, production of Russian computers and electronics will decrease by a third. However, if imports were banned only from the USA, Canada, the UK, EU member states and other Western countries, “the total production in Russia would drop by only 6 percent.”

The team also calculated the expected short-term impact if the harsh ban on Russia’s “main source of income,” fossil fuels, were to be implemented. Thus, the massive decrease in demand for Russian oil and gas will affect “almost all industrial sectors” there: “Our model forecast assumes an additional production decline of 12.4 percent in addition to the 17 percent mentioned above.” On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, Norway, the USA and Australia will make the most of the halt in deliveries from Russia, according to the team, which has also developed an interactive online tool based on the analysis.