– Kachelmann: An extreme event that emerged days before the flood
After the flood disaster in Germany in July, witnesses are now being interviewed. One of the first is weather expert Jörg Kachelmann.
According to weather expert Jörg Kachelmann, a severe weather event was already occurring in southwest North Rhine-Westphalia days before the flood disaster. On Monday, July 12, according to weather models, it was already known that something big was going to happen, Catchelman said Friday night during his two-hour questioning as a witness to the Northwest State House of Representatives’ investigation committee on flooding. in Dusseldorf.
Weather models have already confirmed the high risk of severe weather conditions with very large amounts of rain falling on Monday, after providing clear indications of severe weather conditions due to torrential and continuous rain in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday. Catchelman described the unusual July weather constellation: that moist air masses pressed against the Eiffel from the northeast rather than the west, that a very large area was under heavy rain, and that the Earth was no longer absorbent.
“The information was all there,” Catchelman stressed. Why didn’t the authorities tell people that something was coming that they hadn’t seen yet? Died. There could have been evacuations. “We always have enough time.” If events are repeated, no one will die.
“Here’s the good news, if there’s good news: You can prevent it,” Catchelman told members of state parliament. In extreme weather conditions, no one should sleep.
“In extreme weather conditions, no one is allowed to sleep.”
Jörg Kachelmann, weather expert
When Catchelman was finally informed of the possibility of reimbursement for his efforts to interview witnesses, he explained that the money should instead be donated to the Victims Fund.
The weather expert warned in a tweet July 13 at noon on Twitter that “it is likely that it is time to gradually prepare people for a flood scenario, both formally and in the media.” The next night the first flood occurred.
A few days before the flood disaster, according to British expert Hannah Kluck, the European Flood Warning System EFAS gave a preliminary indication of a potentially dangerous event in the Rhineland. On July 10, 2021, EFAS predicted a flood once every 20 years with a probability of 22% for the Rhine Basin, the hydrology professor said.
“When so many people die, we have to admit that the system as a whole has failed.”
Hannah Kluck, Professor of Hydrology
She explained that this information is still uncertain, but you should be especially careful in such a case. This is the time when the relevant national authorities will consider some additional information in order to get a clearer picture of the situation. It has no indication how the information made available by EFAS will eventually be used by the relevant national and local authorities. EFAS partners received warnings. They can then independently access the web portal of the warning system and continue to work there.
The expert reiterated the criticism she had already expressed, “When so many people die, we have to admit that the system as a whole has failed.” She emphasized that this criticism did not pertain to particular areas of order in North Rhine-Westphalia. They did not investigate how the individual parts functioned in the aftermath of the flood disaster in July.
The commission of inquiry in the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia came with the votes of opposition deputies from the SPD and the Green Party. The commission will investigate possible omissions, omissions or misjudgments by the CDU/FDP state government and its affiliated authorities in relation to the devastating mid-July flood with 49 deaths in North Rhine-Westphalia. In the spring of 2022, a public report on the results available at that point is due to be submitted to the State Parliament. There is the May 2022 state election.