Many hope that summer can slow the Corona pandemic. The calculation reveals the effect of solar radiation on the value of R.
LIVERPOOL – As temperatures rise, hopes increase for containing the Corona pandemic. It seems reasonable to assume that the virus that causes COVID-19 could behave seasonally. Because the number of cases decreased dramatically in the summer of 2020 and remained low for several months. Thus, visits to restaurants, cafes and bars, as well as private meetings and large gatherings, became easier. The increase in the number of intensive care patients and Covid-19 related deaths in the winter also indicates a link with the seasons.
But in Germany, the number of infections increases in early spring and is approaching “the pre-Christmas level” more and more. According to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), about 4,700 people are currently being treated for Covid-19 in intensive care units (as of April 15, 2021). Decisive containment of the epidemic during the warm spring and coming summer alone is considered Virolog: indoors like Christian Drosten is somewhat unlikely. a The research team is led by Kieran Sharkey of the University of Liverpool In England now how the so-called R-value changes due to rising UV rays from the sun.
Corona in the summer: what is the effect of the sun’s ultraviolet rays?
The R value indicates the number of people affected with: r on average. If the R value is less than 1, the infection rate decreases. This R-value was assessed in 359 large cities with more than 500,000 residents, as there was a significant outbreak of corona in the past year. The researchers found that the R value decreased an average of 0.05 per 10 kilojoules of additional UV rays per square meter. The cities examined received between 30 and 130 kJ / m2 of UV rays per day.
Sharkey said that this result from the study indicates a seasonal effect regarding transmission of the Coronavirus. However, this does not mean that higher UV rays are also the cause of a more relaxing infection process. There may be a link to other factors such as humidity and temperature. Sharky points to one Further study It provides “weak evidence” of a link between the spread of the Coronavirus and the temperature. Other factors such as air pollution and public health measures will have a greater influence on the R-value than UV rays. However, it is “statistically significant”. If the value of R is in the DF range (about 1), the effect of sunlight can be decisive.
Sun and Halo: UV rays are not critical to the R value.
The researcher considers that “government intervention” is crucial. Compared to UV rays, it had a four times greater effect on the R-value and was “in our hands”. In the near future, the injury rate will mainly depend on political measures (such as the halo emergency brakes), and not necessarily the weather. In addition, coronavirus vaccines may be crucial.
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Another point is that at higher temperatures, people tend to be outside, as the risk of infection is less on the inside. Researchers at the University of Edinburgh also suspect a link between a lower death rate from sun exposure and a lower death rate from corona.
Sharkey said whether Sars-CoV-2, like influenza and other coronaviruses, is a seasonal contagious disease, remains to be seen in the long term. (Lucas Rogala)