5 theses about the current situation in Germany

Germany voted a week ago – and now the critical phase of government formation begins. SPD candidate Olaf Schultz holds the best cards in hand. However, it can end up empty-handed. Five theses on the situation in the neighboring country.

Christoph Richmouth Berlin / ch media

Less than a week later Bundestag elections All the parties that could be considered to form the government talked with each other. On Tuesday, the union explored candidate Chancellor Armin Laschet and CSU leader Marcus Soder with the Greens about a possible “Jamaica” coalition from the union, FDP and greens.

The president of the Christian Democratic Union, Armin Laschet, described the talks with the Greens as good. “We are ready,” he said, referring to a possible government alliance with him as the chancellor. Five results after the first round of talks.

The Traffic Lights Alliance has the best chance

remains: this Germany The future will be governed by the “traffic light” coalition made up of the SPD, the SPD, and the Greens probably still. Comrade Olaf Schultz can lead the first coalition of three different parties at the federal level.

After the first week of scouting, the Social Democrat had better cards on his hand than immediately after the election. This is because of the miserable state of the union. It seems anything but closed and fuels doubts about his ability to judge.

Armin Laschet was badly damaged

The leader of the CDU, Armin Laschet, who will have to lead the expeditions, feels so battered that the union lacks a center of power. The Liberal Democrats could even save the union chaos: they could sell their electoral base in the green-and-red “traffic light” coalition so that the weak union left them no choice.

Candidate candidate Chancellor Laschet, 60, looked tired and exhausted to the press on Tuesday, irritated by harsh criticism of himself – especially from within his own ranks. However, the Federation should not simply replace its senior staff before the “Jamaica” coalition, so the Chancellery is out of reach.

As soon as the FDP and Green color Deciding to go into explorations with SPD first, Union Laschet could fall. If Jamaica fails, Laschet will not be able to hold out. The names have already been transferred to the party leadership of his successor. These are the famous Jens Spahn, Norbert Röttgen and Frederick Merz. Departure, as the Federation invoked it, looks different.

Decision-making power rests with small parties

The strong ones in this game are the ones who are supposed to be little ones. The Green Party received 14.8% of the vote in the elections, while the Free Democratic Party received 11.5%. Together they are stronger than the Union and the Social Democratic Party – and above all: the Free Democrats and the Greens are ensnared by the comrades and the conservatives. Because without the two, neither “Jamaica” nor a “traffic light” can be formed.

And nobody really wants the last possible option of a grand coalition under the leadership of the SPD. So all the power rests with the two small parties. This week they should say who they want to talk to first. Much like “traffic lights” conversations.

Olaf Schulz hasn’t crossed the finish line yet

It remains uncertain that the 63-year-old will be the next chancellor, even if he currently has the best cards in hand and has even announced Christmas to form a government. In terms of content, the FDP leans toward the union, especially when it comes to tax matters.

If Schulz cannot form the Greens and the Liberal Democrats because the FDP, for example, is making demands that Schulz cannot accept, it will be the union’s turn to form a government again.

New elections are still possible too

If it comes to the “Jamaica” coalition, the union’s candidate for chancellor would be Armin Laschet, but possibly Marcus Sodder as well. But, as is known, “Jamaica” needs not only the FDP, but also the Greens.

They announced that their party base would vote on a coalition. It’s hard to imagine that the Greens rule would push Marcus Soder into the Chancellery. Final Exit: The Unloved Grand Alliance. or new elections. (bzbasel.ch)

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